A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
